noise a flaw in human judgment
Kahneman D., Sibony O., Sunstein C. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
WHEREVER THERE IS HUMAN JUDGMENT, THERE IS NOISE Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes. Now imagine that the same doctor or judge makes different decisions depending on whether it is Monday rather than Wednesday, or they haven't yet had lunch. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In this book, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein show how noise produces errors in many fields, including in medicine, law, public health, economic forecasting, forensic science, child protection, creative strategy, performance review and hiring. We all make bad judgments more than we think. Packed with groundbreaking new ideas and drawing on the approaches that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge international bestsellers, Noise explains what limits our decisionmaking, and offers a practical route to improving the way we think.
1135 Руб.
Kahneman D., Sibony O., Sunstein C.R. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it.
2730 Руб.
Kahneman D., Sibony O., Sunstein C.R. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients--or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants--or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment--and what we can do about it.
2730 Руб.
Kahneman D., Sibony O., Sunstein C. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
WHEREVER THERE IS HUMAN JUDGMENT, THERE IS NOISE Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes. Now imagine that the same doctor or judge makes different decisions depending on whether it is Monday rather than Wednesday, or they haven't yet had lunch. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In this book, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein show how noise produces errors in many fields, including in medicine, law, public health, economic forecasting, forensic science, child protection, creative strategy, performance review and hiring. We all make bad judgments more than we think. Packed with groundbreaking new ideas and drawing on the approaches that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge international bestsellers, Noise explains what limits our decisionmaking, and offers a practical route to improving the way we think.
1135 Руб.
Kahneman Daniel, Sibony Olivier, Sunstein Cass R. Noise. A Flaw in Human Judgment
Wherever there is human judgement, there is noise. ‘Noise may be the most important book I've read in more than a decade. A genuinely new idea so exceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice. A masterpiece’ Angela Duckworth, author of Grit ‘An absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sight’ Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics From the world-leaders in strategic thinking and the multi-million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge, the next big book to change the way you think. Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients – or that two judges in the same court give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes. Now imagine that the same doctor and the same judge make different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday, or they haven’t yet had lunch. These are examples of noise: variability in judgements that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein show how noise produces errors in many fields, including in medicine, law, public health, economic forecasting, forensic science, child protection, creative strategy, performance review and hiring. And although noise can be found wherever people are making judgements and decisions, individuals and organizations alike commonly ignore its impact, at great cost. Packed with new ideas, and drawing on the same kind of sharp analysis and breadth of case study that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge international bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise and bias in decision-making. We all make bad judgements more than we think. With a few simple remedies, this groundbreaking book explores what we can do to make better ones.
4685 Руб.
Smith Delia You Matter. The Human Solution
We know science is awesome, as are its achievements. Yet so far scientists have managed to sidestep the most awesome reality of all, the true nature of human life, the source of their own genius. How is it that in the overwhelming immensity of the cosmos, on microscopic earth, human beings exist? We have not yet looked reality in the face and perceived the nobility and grandeur of who we are, each of us having a responsibility in the universe and being part of a vast and continuing process, which can only emerge from the shadows and darkest corners of our thought when we step aside away from all the noise. 'You Matter' encourages people to think more deeply about the phenomenon of existence, what it means to be a unique human person, and how in unity with one another we can build a future in these uncertain times.
4159 Руб.
Tunbridge Laura Beethoven. A Life in Nine Pieces
An authoritative and refreshing account of Beethoven's life and music Ludwig van Beethoven: to some, simply the greatest ever composer of Western classical music. Yet his life remains shrouded in myths, and the image persists of him as an eccentric genius shaking his fist at heaven. Beethoven by Oxford professor Laura Tunbridge cuts through the noise in a refreshing way. Each chapter focuses on a period of his life, a piece of music and a revealing theme, from family to friends, from heroism to liberty. This tour de force provides a fresh overview and a wealth of material that has never been revealed before. It's a compelling, human portrayal of Beethoven and a fascinating journey into one of the world's most amazing creative minds.
3727 Руб.
Brennan Frank Windows of the Mind. Level 5
Award-winning original fiction for learners of English. At seven levels, from Starter to Advanced, this impressive selection of carefully graded readers offers exciting reading for every student's capabilities. Five stories about the senses: Arlo hates noise and has a plan to bring the world silence. Gopal uses smell to protect the memory of his sister. Journalist Kathy uses her blindness to get a clear picture of human characters. Daniel has a tongue that earns him a living but could also be his downfall. And Jamie learns to balance the benefits of t'ai chi in his search for health and happiness.
2002 Руб.
May Peter Cast Iron
A decade-old body exposed by a heat wave drives the explosive next chapter in the Enzo Files THE GIRL IN THE LAKE In 1989, a killer dumped the body of twenty-year-old Lucie Martin into a picturesque lake in the West of France. Fourteen years later, during a summer heatwave, a drought exposed her remains. THE MAN ON THE CASE No one was ever convicted of her murder. But now, forensic expert Enzo Macleod is reviewing this stone-cold case - the toughest of those he has been challenged to solve. THE SKELETON IN THE CLOSET Yet when Enzo finds a flaw in the original evidence surrounding Lucie's murder, he opens a Pandora's box that not only raises old ghosts but endangers his entire family.
1257 Руб.
May Peter Cast Iron
In 1989, a killer dumped the body of twenty-year-old Lucie Martin into a picturesque lake in the West of France. Fourteen years later, during a summer heat wave, a drought exposed her remains - bleached bones amid the scorched mud and slime.No one was ever convicted of her murder. But now, forensic expert Enzo Macleod is reviewing this stone-cold case - the toughest of those he has been challenged to solve.Yet when Enzo finds a flaw in the original evidence surrounding Lucie's murder, he opens a Pandora's box that not only raises old ghosts but endangers his entire family..
645 Руб.
May P. Cast Iron
In 1989, a killer dumped the body of twenty-year-old Lucie Martin into a picturesque lake in the West of France. Fourteen years later, during a summer heat wave, a drought exposed her remains - bleached bones amid the scorched mud and slime.No one was ever convicted of her murder. But now, forensic expert Enzo Macleod is reviewing this stone-cold case - the toughest of those he has been challenged to solve.Yet when Enzo finds a flaw in the original evidence surrounding Lucie's murder, he opens a Pandora's box that not only raises old ghosts but endangers his entire family. .
645 Руб.
May P. Cast Iron
In 1989, a killer dumped the body of twenty-year-old Lucie Martin into a picturesque lake in the West of France. Fourteen years later, during a summer heat wave, a drought exposed her remains - bleached bones amid the scorched mud and slime.No one was ever convicted of her murder. But now, forensic expert Enzo Macleod is reviewing this stone-cold case - the toughest of those he has been challenged to solve.Yet when Enzo finds a flaw in the original evidence surrounding Lucie's murder, he opens a Pandora's box that not only raises old ghosts but endangers his entire family. .
645 Руб.
Milbourne Anna Peep Inside the Jungle
Down in the jungle there's a chatter and a squawk. Is it the mummy tiger with her cubs? A bright-eyed tree frog? A bird of paradise or a honey bear having a midnight snack? Children can peep under the leaves and between the trees in this delightful book to spot the creatures in the jungle and see who's making all that noise.
923 Руб.
Evolt TWS-200 True Wireless Earbuds With Active Noise Cancellation And Digital Battery Display Protective Silicone Case And Carabiner Clip Included
Evolt TWS-200 features Active Noise Cancellation which actively counters the background noise, firstly by detecting & analyzing external noise & then by generating a reverse signal to cancel it. Once this background noise is suppressed, you will then be able to enrich your music experience thanks to the Evolt TWS high quality speaker drivers, hands free microphones & master-slave switching which allows you to use the earbuds in stereo as well as mono mode. Additionally it features a digital battery level which tells you the battery capacity the charging case as well as the earbuds carry in them. We have also included a stylish & protective silicone cover with this packaging which adds both durability & style to your True wireless earbuds on the go.
0 Руб.
Coelho Paulo The Devil and Miss Prym
In this stunning novel, Coelho's unusual protagonist sets the town a moral challenge from which they may never recover. A stranger arrives in the small mountain village. He carries with him a backpack containing a notebook and eleven gold bars. Burying these in the vicinity, the stranger strikes up a curious friendship with a young woman from the village - Miss Prym. His mission is to discover whether human beings are essentially good or evil. A fascinating meditation on the human soul, The Devil and Miss Prym illuminates the reality of good and evil within us all, and our uniquely human capacity to choose between them.
1220 Руб.
Lawrence David Herbert The Fox. The Captain's Doll. The Ladybird
These three novellas display D. H. Lawrence's brilliant and insightful evocation of human relationships - both tender and cruel - and the devastating results of war. In The Fox, two young women living on a small farm during the First World War find their solitary life interrupted. As a fox preys on their poultry, a human predator has the women in his sights. The Captain's Doll explores the complex relationship between a German countess and a married Scottish soldier in occupied Germany, while in The Ladybird a wounded prisoner of war has a disturbing influence on the Englishwoman who visits him in hospital.
2567 Руб.